In recent days, several of President Donald Trump's closest officials have hinted that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky might need to step down.
However, Ukrainian officials and analysts argue that any change in leadership would create political turmoil for at least six months and require a ceasefire before elections could be held in line with international standards.
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Hurdles to Holding Elections in Wartime Ukraine
There are three major obstacles to holding elections in Ukraine, according to officials:
Operational Polling Stations: Only three-quarters of the country’s polling stations are currently functional, and restoring them to meet international standards would take at least six months, says Serhiy Dubovyk, deputy head of Ukraine’s electoral commission.
Constitutional Requirements: Ukraine’s constitution mandates that the speaker of parliament temporarily take over the presidency if the president resigns, until elections can be held.
Martial Law: Ukraine is currently under martial law, which prohibits elections until the law is lifted. A sustained ceasefire or peace agreement would be required to remove martial law and hold elections.
Zelensky Dismisses Calls for Resignation
The focus on Zelensky’s future intensified after remarks from Trump’s advisers over the weekend, suggesting Zelensky may no longer be the leader Ukraine needs.
On Monday, Trump responded to Zelensky’s statement about the distant prospect of ending the war, implying that the U.S. would not tolerate such comments for much longer.
However, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified that Trump had no intention of removing Zelensky.
In response, Zelensky appeared to dismiss the idea of resigning. During an interview in London, he stated that removing him from power would require negotiations, adding that he would consider resignation only if Ukraine achieved NATO membership—a scenario Trump has repeatedly ruled out.
Zelensky quipped that joining NATO would fulfill his mission and could lead to his resignation.
Challenges to Staging an Election Amid War
The logistical challenges of holding elections while the country is at war are significant, according to Dubovyk. First, martial law must be lifted before elections can proceed.
Additionally, only 75% of polling stations are currently operational, and the damage caused by the ongoing conflict complicates preparations.
A six-month preparation period has been deemed a reasonable timeframe to organize elections that adhere to international standards. This period could be expedited, but doing so would risk undermining the legitimacy of the election process.
Furthermore, Dubovyk emphasized the challenge of allowing the estimated 7 million Ukrainians living abroad as refugees to vote, as well as providing the roughly 1 million Ukrainian soldiers with the opportunity to vote and run for office.
International Standards and Legitimacy
The Kremlin has repeatedly questioned Zelensky’s legitimacy, casting doubt on his mandate during wartime.
This narrative has also been echoed in some White House statements. Election advocates argue that ensuring a legitimate, internationally recognized vote is crucial, especially given Russia’s history of electoral interference, as seen during the 2004 Orange Revolution.
Olha Aivazovska, from the electoral reform group Opora, emphasized the importance of maintaining freedoms of movement and speech during elections.
She stressed that holding an election under wartime conditions would be unconstitutional and could undermine Ukraine’s legitimacy, making it more vulnerable to Russian threats. Without legitimacy, Ukraine risks becoming a failed state.
In summary, while calls for Zelensky’s resignation persist in some circles, the practical and constitutional obstacles to holding a new election in Ukraine during wartime make such a move nearly impossible.
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Written By HowNHowTo.com